BloggingStocks

Analyst initiations: North American pipeline sector, ARO and IMCL

Eric Buscemi — 2008-06-27T12:24:00+00:00

Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst initiations, ImClone Systems (IMCL)

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The North American Pipeline sector, Aeropostale and ImClone were today's noteworthy initiations:

BMO Capital initiated the North American Pipeline sector with a Market Perform rating. El Paso Corp (NYSE:EP), Williams Companies (NYSE:WMB) and Spectra Energy (NYSE:SE) were initiated with Outperform ratings and CenterPoint Energy (NYSE:CNP) and AGL Resources (NYSE:ATG) ATG were assumed with Market Perform ratings.
Friedman Billings believes Aeropostale (NYSE:ARO) has an impressive back-to-school floorset and that momentum should carry into the fall. Additionally, the firm, which initiated shares with an Outperform rating and $38 target, expects the company to buyback shares.
Thomas Weisel believes ImClone (NASDAQ:IMCL) is attractively valued as Erbitux is positioned to capitalize on a number of label-expanding opportunities and that concerns of KRAS-related revenue loss in colorectal cancer and the clinical utility of FLEX lung cancer data are overstated. Shares were assumed with an Overweight rating and $50 target.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

JMP Securities initiated Website Pros. inc. (NASDAQ:WWWW) and GSI Commerce (NASDAQ:GSIC) with Outperform ratings and target of $12 and $19, respectively.
McAfee (NYSE:MFE) was assumed at Baird with an Outperform rating and $44 target.

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Short sellers letting up in biotechs

Jon Ogg — 2008-06-11T16:30:00+00:00

Filed under: Amgen Inc (AMGN), Gilead Sciences (GILD), ImClone Systems (IMCL)

Short selling often tells much about what is going on in a sector, particularly when there is a common trend across the major players in that sector.

The end of May short selling can now be accessed from NASDAQ. Interestingly enough, short sellers at the end of May lightened up almost across the board on major NASDAQ biotech stocks from May 15 to May 30:

STOCK (Ticker)	MAY 30	MAY 15	CHANGE
Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN)	22,678,517	24,778,770	-8.48%
Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB)	6,346,464	6,788,432	-6.51%
Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG)	13,775,373	16,336,232	-15.68%
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD)	32,478,444	32,690,603	-0.65%
ImClone Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: IMCL)	7,149,395	7,664,009	-6.71%

From the major names, a change in the overall trend can be spotted.

You can see the full short selling report for biotechs at BioHealthinvestor.com to see which other biotechs had an increase in short selling and to also see what the more active biotechs with lower market caps saw in their short selling activity.

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Before the bell: Futures retreat ahead of data

Melly Alazraki — 2008-06-02T07:43:00+00:00

Filed under: Before the bell, Earnings reports, Deals, Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), Market matters, Genentech Inc (DNA), Economic data, ImClone Systems (IMCL), Recession

After quite a positive week, U.S. stocks indicated a lower opening Monday morning as investors heard of trouble from the biggest U.K. lender to landlords, as well as awaited data on U.S. manufacturing, anticipating a contraction.

U.S. stocks finished with gains last week as oil prices dropped from highs of over $135 a barrel. On Friday, too, stocks were mostly higher with the exception of the Dow industrial, which dropped nearly 8 points, or 0.06%. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite finished 2 points, or 0.15%, and 14 points, or 0.57%, higher respectively.

This morning, two indicators are due for release, but investors will keep their eye mostly on one.
April construction spending will be reported at 10:00 a.m. EDT, and will likely show further decline in spending.
At the same time, the Institute for Supply Management will issue its monthly report for May. Wall Street gives much weight to the results of this indicator, which shows manufacturing activity and is thus a better gauge for economic activity than many other indicators. Already the index is below 50, and this month is expected to decline slightly more.

Making the headline news this morning is British biggest lender to landlords, Bradford & Bingley Plc, which suffered its biggest drop in London trading after the company announced plans to sell shares at a 33% discount and said the housing market is worsening. The company had a pretax loss of 8 million pounds.

Meanwhile, oil dropped below $127 a barrel Monday on worries that soaring prices have eaten away at demand in the U.S. and other nations, and a U.S. probe into futures trading continued to weigh on the market.

In deal news, Mobile service provider China Unicom Ltd. is acquiring fixed-line China Netcom Group Corp. in a share swap valued at $56.3 billion, based on Unicom's stock last traded price.

In other corporate news, ImClone (NASDAQ: IMCL) shares are down 2.5% in premarket trading, while Genentech (NYSE: DNA)'s are up 2.3%. Erbitux, ImClone's drug, was found to extend life by five weeks for lung cancer patients in a study that may help its partners win regulatory approval for the new use. The results could make Erbitux the preferred therapy for half of non-small-cell lung cancer patients who can't take Genentech's Avastin because of side effects. Meanwhile, second phase 3 study of Avastin plus chemotherapy showed improved progression-free survival in women with advanced HER2-negative breast cancer

Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM) may cut its U.S. sales forecast due to disappointing truck sales, the Financial Times reported.

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Option Update: ImClone June calls active into ASCO

Paul Foster — 2008-05-30T12:22:00+00:00

Filed under: Options, ImClone Systems (IMCL)

ImClone (NASDAQ: IMCL), an oncology care company, is recently trading at $43.36. IMCL's Erbutux Phase 3 FLEX study results, K-Ras mutation analysis from the Phase 3 CRYSTAL study and Phase 3 CAIRO two study are expected to be presented during the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting from May 30-June 2, 2008. Leerink Swann says "the risks of a major disappointment for upcoming FLEX data as ASCO are low." IMCL call option volume of 17,199 contracts compares to put volume of 5,669 contracts. IMCL June option implied volatility is at 53; July is at 45, near its 26-week average of 48 according to Track Data, suggesting larger June price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

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Can cancer drugs help pharma sales?

Melly Alazraki — 2008-05-19T15:10:00+00:00

Filed under: Pfizer (PFE), Novartis AG ADS (NVS), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Merck and Co (MRK), Genentech Inc (DNA), Amgen Inc (AMGN), Lilly (Eli) (LLY), ImClone Systems (IMCL)

Almost everyone these days has encountered cancer in one way or another. While the rate of cancer incidence has stabilized to declined since the early 1990s and, with newer and better treatments as well as early detection, cancer death rates have also declined, the war on cancer is still far from won.

It is no surprise, then, that a few days ago, IMS Health (NYSE: RX) -- a provider of market intelligence to the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries -- said that cancer drugs sales will nearly double by the year 2012. Assuming a compound growth rate of 12-15% a year, sales will grow from $48 billion in 2008 to $80 billion by 2012.

The main contributors to growth, according to the study, are an increasing number of patients on chemotherapy, not just in major markets but in emerging markets, too, as well as longer treatment periods for growing numbers of patients. Also fueling growth are the increased use of targeted therapeutic agents, along with first-time innovations coming to the market. Expensive new biotechnology drugs, and the increasing use of combination therapies that contribute to the exploding cost of treatment will also fuel cancer drugs sales growth.

The overall pharmaceutical market grew at a 6.4% pace in 2007, meaning that with its double-digit growth rate, the cancer drug market -- today contributing 17% to global pharmaceutical sales -- will only represent a greater proportion and emphasis. Of course, there will be factors moderating growth, such as drugs losing exclusivity and financial constraints of payers.

Cancer-fighting drugs can reach the market twice as fast as the average medicine, and companies can charge as much as $50,000 for a single course of treatment. It is no surprise then that with more and more drugs coming off patent many pharma companies are turning their attention to cancer. But can it save them?

Only recently, Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) has put several key people to head the different segments of its oncology arm, saying the company will focus on increasing the current 5% contribution of oncology drugs to its annual sales. Pfizer has boosted antitumor research 60% since 2005, and has something to show for it with the industry's biggest batch of experimental cancer drugs:18 potential medicines targeted against pancreatic, breast and lung cancers, although it has no oncology drugs awaiting approval now.

Pfizer isn't alone, of course. AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN), GlaxoSmithkline (NYSE: GSK) and Novartis (NYSE: NVS) are testing more than a dozen antitumor drugs each and they're not alone.

Still, most cancer drugs in research today are not expected to be blockbusters. While some could bring sales in the billions, most will have sales of a few hundred million at best. This is very different from the many billions in revenue pharmas are used to with blockbusters like Pfizer's Lipitor, a cholesterol medicine that produced sales of $12.7 billion in 2007. Many of these blockbusters, though, are slowly coming off patent, so capturing the oncology drug market that can bring in the billions could be crucial for big pharmas. It is no surprise, then, that many analysts waited last Thursday for the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) abstract report, which includes 5,000 research studies, to try and identify the next potential successes.

The ASCO conference itself will be at the end of the month, May 30-June 2 in Chicago. Many of the studies submitted in the abstract will have updated results then. For now, though, some say that the early winners are Genentech Inc. (NYSE: DNA), Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ: CELG) and Medarex Inc. (NASDAQ: MEDX). (Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ONXX) and OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIP) look the opposite.)

But Genentech and Celgene already spend a lot on cancer research, and already have blockbuster oncology drugs like Avastin, a treatment for colorectal and non-small cell lung cancers and Herceptin for breast cancer (both Genentech's). The question is where were the big pharmas in all this?

Well, they tried:

Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) is awaiting approval for Enzastaurin, its non-hodgkin's lymphoma drug late 2010 / early 2011 and for Arzoxifene for osteoporosis and prevention of breast cancer, and also has quite a list of oncology drugs clinical trials going on. The company says a new study showed Alimta delayed growth in lung cancer when used soon after initial chemotherapy. This could support broader use of Alimta, which had $854 million in sales last year.
Pfizer said that study results across several difficult-to-treat cancers will be presented at ASCO. Most notable, though, is Pfizer's tests for Sutent for use in breast cancer, perhaps competing with Avastin there.
GlaxoSmithKline PLC (NYSE: GSK) announced that its Tykerb drug combined with Genentech's Herceptin increased progression-free survival in women with HER2-positive, advanced breast cancer to 12 weeks versus 8.1 weeks for Tykerb alone.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY), which co-markets ImClone Systems' (NASDAQ: IMCL) colon cancer drug Erbitux -- another example of a best-seller cancer drug from a smaller company -- was mentioned by 100 study abstracts. As for Erbitux, though, its sales could be hurt from studies that showed the drug is useless in nearly half of colon cancer patients and that now a simple gene test could determine compatibility ahead of time. Amgen's Vectibix will likely be affected by these findings as well.
Speaking of Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), it also provided an abstract to a study that showed that according to early test results, its experimental drug Denosumab was more effective than Novartis's Zometa in halting cancer's spread to bones and preventing fractures in cancer patients.

Notably missing were Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) and Wyeth Inc. (NYSE: WYE), although it's possible they were hidden somewhere inside the 5,000 abstracts.

Regardless, even the above examples were not the most exciting studies found.

Luckily for cancer patients, drug companies have something to strive for as more of their other blockbuster drugs go off patent and sales decline. With more research & development going into oncology drugs, this could be a win-win situation all around. The question is whether big pharmas are doing enough to move in that direction. It seems that some are and others are not, with Glaxo, AstraZeneca, Novartis and Pfizer, along with smaller Amgen and Lilly, actually poised better than Wyeth and Merck to improve in that market. DNA and CELG have long been oncology favorites, with good reason.

Now if only now a company could find the ultimate cure or vaccine, that'd be great for patients, sales and shareholders!

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Closing Bell: Merger talk, oil drop, dollar gain

Jon Ogg — 2008-05-12T16:18:00+00:00

Filed under: After the bell, Earnings reports, Deals, XM Satellite Radio (XMSR), Clear Channel Commun (CCU), Research in Motion (RIMM), ImClone Systems (IMCL)

Crude surpassed $126.00 before retreating down by $1.85 to $124.11 late in the day. Many are citing that the interest in owning the dollar is also partly to thank for today's gains. Below are the unofficial closing bell prices for major index levels:

DJIA 12,879.24 (+133.36; +1.05%)
S&P 500 1,403.50 (+15.22; +1.10%)
NASDAQ 2,487.86 (+42.34; +1.73%)
10YR-TBond 3.775% (+0.008%)
52 WEEK LOWS
ANALYST CALLS

AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) rose today after it forecast that first quarter profit will exceed projections. Additionally, the women's apparel store reported its plans to drop its older women fall line but push the opening of its Loft outlets. Shares were up 16% at $28.50 in the final minutes of trading.

Clear Channel Communications, Inc. (NYSE: CCU) jumped today after the possibility that a settlement between the private equity buyers and six financing banks may go through to allow the buyout by Bain Capital and THL Partners. The terms are supposedly reduced from $39.50 per share to $36.00 per share. Trials between the banks and the buyers were supposed to begin today. Shares were up nearly 10% at $32.89 in the final minutes of the day.

Cumulus Media Inc. (NASADAQ: CMLS) shares plunged after terms for a buyout by Merrill Lynch Private Equity Group and the company could not be agreed upon for the $1.3 billion valued transaction. Shares were down almost 24% at $4.42 in the final minutes today on the news.

ImClone Systems Incorporated (NASDAQ: IMCL) dipped today after suffering a downgrade by Morgan Stanley. Shares were down over 6% at $41.87 in the final minutes today on the news.

Research In Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) rose today after announcing changes to its BlackBerry, making it more competitive with Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iPhone. Shares were up over 7% at $142.45 in the last minutes of the day.

XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR) reported a wider loss today compared to a year ago. It posted a loss of $129.3 million or $0.42 EPS and on reports of subscriber growth. Shares rose 4% to $12.30 in late day trading.

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Imclone (IMCL) trade idea on downgrade

Brent Archer — 2008-05-12T13:40:00+00:00

Filed under: Major movement, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Bad news, Options, Technical Analysis, ImClone Systems (IMCL)

ImClone Systems (NASDAQ: IMCL) shares are falling after an analyst at Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Underweight from Equal Weight, saying that an upcoming drug study announcement will not please investors. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on IMCL.

After hitting a one-year low of $30.34 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $49.18 in April. This morning, IMCL opened at $42.66. So far today the stock has hit a low of $41.94 and a high of $43.49. As of 12:40, IMCL is trading at $42.02, down $2.81 (-6.3%). The chart for IMCL looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in six weeks as long as IMCL is below $50 at June expiration. Hershey would have to rise by more than 18% before we would start to lose money.

IMCL hasn't been above $50 at all in the past year and has shown resistance around $47.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the company continues its upward climb, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance IMCL might find around $49, where the stock topped over the past month.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in IMCL.

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Early analyst calls (EP) (ERIC) (AIG)

Douglas McIntyre — 2008-05-12T07:42:00+00:00

Filed under: Before the bell, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Amer Intl Group (AIG), ImClone Systems (IMCL)

JP Morgan raised El Paso (NYSE:EP) from "neutral" to "over weight", according to Briefing.com. The news agency also reports that RBC upgraded Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERIC) from "sector perform" to "outperform"

American International Group (NYSE:AIG) was cut to "neutral" from "buy" at Goldman Sachs according to 24/7 Wall St. The financial site also reports that ImClone Systems (NASDAQ:IMCL) was cut to "underweight" at Morgan Stanley.

Douglas A. McIntyre

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20 most profitable tech companies, simple strategy that crushes the market & tax rebate rewards - Today in Money 4/29

Allan Halprin — 2008-04-29T08:00:00+00:00

Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Intel (INTC), General Motors (GM), International Business Machines (IBM), Money and Finance Today, Merck and Co (MRK), AMR Corp (AMR), UAL Corp (UAUA), ImClone Systems (IMCL)

In the News

· Fed Seen Cutting Rates Today for 7th Time

· Visa Profits Rise 28% in First Earnings Report Since Going Public

· Gas Prices Top Economic Worries in Survey

· Merck Cholesterol Drug Rejected By FDA

· American Airlines Losing $3.3 Million a Day

· GM Plans to Cut Truck Shifts, Lay Off 3,500

· United & U.S. Airways in Advanced Merger Talks

· Homes Facing Foreclosure More Than Doubled in 1Q, No End in Sight

· Gamers Line Up for 'Grand Theft Auto' 4

· Economists Say USA in Recession

· Forever Stamp Hot as Postage Hike Nears

· Home Stores in Pain as Less People Doing Home Improvements

20 Most Profitable Tech Companies
Among Fortune 1000 techs, Microsoft remains on top, taking in $14.1 billion in earnings last year. IBM, Cisco, Hewlett-Packard and Intel round out the top five most profitable.
20 most profitable tech companies - FORTUNE

Stocks: Ready for Better Times?
The financial crisis isn't over, but by several measures investors are letting go of their worst fears.
Stocks: Ready for Better Times? - BusinessWeek

The Simple Strategy That Crushes the Market
Many brilliant minds have dedicated decades in pursuit of an investing strategy that can beat the market consistently. Here is one that shouldn't work, but it does.
The Simple Strategy That Crushes the Market - Motley Fool

Tax Rebate Rewards
Retailers are rolling out the welcome mat. Here are some of the deals some top retailers are offering.
Retailers Offer Added Perks for Tax Rebates (Deal of the Day: Personal Finance) at SmartMoney.com

Tween Sensations Courting Controversy
With Miley Cirus' recent embarrassment over Vanity Fair photos, Forbes looks at the impact of teen star's more adult or controversial photos. They include Vanessa Hudgens, Daniel Radcliffe, Jamie Lynn Spears. Shia Laboeuf, Haley Joel Osment, Lindsay Lohan and Brooke Shields.
Who's Minding Miley? - Forbes.com In Pictures: Tween Sensations Courting Controversy - Forbes

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ImClone (IMCL) rises on upgrade

Brent Archer — 2008-03-19T12:36:00+00:00

Filed under: Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Good news, Options, Technical Analysis, ImClone Systems (IMCL)

Imclone Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: IMCL) shares are rising today after an analyst at Citigroup upgraded the stock to "Buy" from "Hold." Citi posted a $52 price target for IMCL and expects to hear good news at an upcoming conference. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on IMCL.

After hitting a one-year high of $47.94 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $30.00 last March. IMCL opened this morning at $44.81. So far today the stock has hit a low of $43.61 and a high of $45.20. As of 11:33, IMCL is trading at $43.80, up $0.71 (1.7%). The chart for IMCL looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bull-put credit spread below the $35 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 9.9% return in just two months as long as IMCL is above $35 at May expiration. ImClone would have to fall by more than 20% before we would start to lose money.

IMCL hasn't been below $35 since August and has shown support around $42 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in late April) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock has found just below $40, where it has bounced twice so far in 2008.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in IMCL.

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Before the bell: MOT, FRE, AMZN, SBUX, SIRI, GILD, IMCL ...

Melly Alazraki — 2008-02-22T08:28:00+00:00

Filed under: Before the bell, Earnings reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Deals, Apple Inc (AAPL), Wal-Mart (WMT), Starbucks (SBUX), Amazon.com (AMZN), Motorola (MOT), XM Satellite Radio (XMSR), Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI), Target Corp. (TGT), Barrick Gold (ABX), Gilead Sciences (GILD), ImClone Systems (IMCL)

Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) was downgraded to Sell by Merrill Lynch due to the credit crisis.

More analyst calls from Briefing.com:

Arcelor Mittal (NYSE: MT) was upgraded by Deutsche Securities from Holdto Buy. MT shares are up 3.75% in premarket trading.
Imclone (NASDAQ: IMCL) was upgraded at Cowen & Co from Neutralto Outperform.
Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) was downgraded by UBS from Buyto Neutral , and the target price lowered from $55 to $56
Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) was downgraded by Bernstein from Outperformto Mkt Perform

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) shares took quite a hit Thursday, finishing the session down just over 5% "after founder and CEO Jeff Bezos sold more than $135 million worth of shares in his first insider sale in more than three years."

Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) says Paul J. Liska will become its new chief financial officer on March 1, replacing acting chief financial officer Tom Meredith.

Ars Technica reported Thursday of a new patent filed by Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) that could integrate podacsts, TiVo and iTunes store.
Meanwhile, TUAW, in response to readers, prepared an iPhone "call home" program that returns the location of the cell phone tower nearest to your iPhone so you have a better chance finding it in case of loss or theft.

An analyst from Citigroup suspects that more shoppers are choosing Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) over rival Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) now that consumers are scaling back purchases.

As Schultz continues to refocus his company, Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) said Thursday it will cut about 600 jobs, including 220 support staff who worked at the coffee retailer's headquarters and in field operations, and about 380 open jobs that the company will not fill.

XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR) reports third-quarter earnings on Thursday. Analysts expect XM to report fourth-quarter loss of 64 cents per share on revenue of $303.2 million. Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI), XM's rival and potential acquirer, reports on Tuesday Feb. 26. Analysts predict Sirius will book losses totaling 13 cents per share on revenue of $267.4 million. Meanwhile, the Department of Justice and Federal Communication Commission continued to delay their decision on the merger, but the DOJ may decide during the first quarter.

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Analyst upgrades 9-11-07: U.S. beverage sector, IMCL, HOT and MAR

Eric Buscemi — 2007-09-11T10:35:00+00:00

Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), Anheuser-Busch Cos (BUD), Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE), Starwood Hotels Worldwide (HOT), Marriott Intl'A' (MAR), ImClone Systems (IMCL)

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The U.S. beverage sector, ImClone, Starwood Hotels and Marriott International were today's noteworthy upgrades:

Goldman Sachs upgraded the U.S. beverage sector, including Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE: TAP), Anheuser Busch Companies (NYSE: BUD), PepsiAmericas Inc (NYSE: PAS) and Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) to Attractive from Neutral. The firm cited expectations for a stronger 2008, benign commodity cost outlook, better than expected US beer demand, and valuations. Goldman upgraded shares of PepsiCo Inc (NYSE: PEP) to Buy from Neutral citing valuation and improving industry fundamentals.
Bear Stearns upgraded ImClone (NASDAQ: IMCL) to Outperform from Peer Perform citing positive Flex trial results and the new market opportunity for Erbitux.
Thomas Weisel upgraded Starwood Hotels (NYSE: HOT) and Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) to Market Weight from Underweight based on healthy August trends, credit market may ease concerns over supply growth, and valuations.

OTHER UPGRADES:

Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE: TMA) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
Western Digital Corp (NYSE: WDC) was upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
KeyBanc raised Ruby Tuesday (NYSE: RT) to Hold from Underweight.
Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO) was upped to Buy from Hold at Gabelli.

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Option update: Imclone (IMCL) rallies on Erbitux data, Genentech (DNA) sells off

Paul Foster — 2007-09-11T08:51:00+00:00

Filed under: Analyst reports, Good news, Bad news, Genentech Inc (DNA), Options, ImClone Systems (IMCL)

ImClone (NASDAQ: IMCL) implied volatility elevated prior to positive Erbitux data.

IMCL, an oncology care company, is recently trading up $11.05 to $48.98 in pre-open trading.
Merck KGaA & IMCL announced that Erbitux met the primary endpoint outcomes from the FLEX trial (a phase 3 study of 1000 patients with previously untreated non-small cell lung cancer).
Goldman Sachs says, "Erbitux data in lung cancer positive for IMCL, Minor neg for DNA."
IMCL October option implied volatility of 46 is above its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Genentech (NYSE: DNA) September volatility at 21 prior to IMCL's NCSCLC data.

DNA is recently trading at $76 in pre-open trading, below its close of $79.15.
Merck KGaA & IMCL announced that Erbitux met the primary endpoint outcomes from the FLEX trial (a phase 3 study of 1000 patients with previously untreated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
DNA September option implied volatility is at 21; October is at 25. DNA's average option implied volatility over the last 26-weeks is 24 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional near term price fluctuations.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

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Before the bell: IMCL, BMY, CFC, PEP, AAPL ...

Melly Alazraki — 2007-09-11T08:37:00+00:00

Filed under: Before the bell, Earnings reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Forecasts, Good news, Management, Apple Inc (AAPL), General Electric (GE), PepsiCo (PEP), Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Countrywide Financial (CFC), News Corp'B' (NWS), ImClone Systems (IMCL)

Before the bell: Markets to open higher before Bernanke's speech

ImClone Systems (NASDAQ: IMCL) shares are up nearly 30% in premarket trading. ImClone Systems and Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) said that a Phase III study of Erbitux combined with platinum-based chemotherapy improved overall advanced non-small-cell lung cancer patient survival compared with chemotherapy alone. BMY shares are up 3% in premarket trading. German drugs group Merck KGaA (not MRK) conducted the study and its shares also jumped 6% in Frankfurt.

Countrywide Financial Corp (NYSE: CFC) troubles aren't over as yesterday it found out from regulatory filings that its largest shareholder, AllianceBernstein LP, has cut its stakes in the mortgage lender. Another shareholder, Barclays Global Investors, did the same. Meanwhile, according to the New York Post, Countrywide is working to structure another strategic investment similar to the $2 billion deal with Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC) last month.

Expect some action in PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) as it was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Goldman Sachs, citing valuation. Goldman upgraded the beverage sector from Neutral to Attractive due to its defensive nature along with improving fundamentals and reasonable valuation.

After GE's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal pulled its television shows from sale on Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iTunes store, many expected News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) to follow. Well, today News Corp said it will not pull its television shows from iTunes.

Auto industry executives have been speaking that past day:
Ford Motor Co's (NYSE: F) John Fleming, the president and chief executive officer of Ford of Europe, said he isn't expecting to make big market share gains in Europe in the near future.
General Motors Corp (NYSE: GM) Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner blamed the softness in the housing market for weakness in vehicle sales.

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Analyst downgrades 7-13-07: ALL, BDK, IMCL and RSH

Kevin Shult — 2007-07-13T11:00:00+00:00

Filed under: Before the bell, Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Bad news, Allstate Corp (ALL), Black and Decker (BDK), RadioShack Corp (RSH), ImClone Systems (IMCL)

MOST NOTEWORTHY: RadioShack Corp (RSH), Visual Sciences (VSCN), Alcan (AL), U.S. Celluar (USM) and Westwood One (WON) were today's noteworthy downgrades:

Banc of America downgraded shares of RadioShack (NYSE: RSH) to Sell from Neutral and lowered their target to $18 from $26 as they believe cuts to labor costs and advertising expenses will make it more difficult to overcome declining wireless trends.

Friedman Billings cut Visual Sciences (NASDAQ: VSCN) to Market Perform from Outperform on valuation. Citigroup downgraded Alcan to Hold from buy on the acquisition news.

Soleil cut U.S. Celluar (AMEX: USM) to Sell from Hold on valuation.

Westwood One (NYSE: WON) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup based on management distractions and weak fundamentals...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Cowen removed ImClone Systems (NASDAQ: IMCL) from its Focus List, as the firm believes Erbitux is now more in line with consensus but said financials remain uninspiring.

Merrill cut Allstate (NYSE: ALL) and Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK) to Neutral from Buy.

USB downgraded Frontline (NYSE: FRO) to Reduce from Neutral.

Matrix cut Thor Industries (NYSE: THO) to Sell from Strong Buy.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

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Is Paris Hilton taking stock trading tips from Martha Stewart?

Kevin Kersten — 2007-07-05T19:00:00+00:00

Filed under: Major movement, Insiders, Law, Scandals, Dow Jones and Co (DJ), Hilton Hotels (HLT), Options, Economic data, aQuantive Inc (AQNT), ImClone Systems (IMCL)

In the past Mike Fowlkes, Sarah Gilbert and I have pointed out what seems blatant illegal activity in Dow Jones (NYSE: DJ) and Aquantive (NASDAQ: AQNT). Now there is activity in Hilton Hotels (NYSE: HLT) worth taking a look at.

Hilton Hotels closed up 9.34 to $45.39 today on news the company agreed to be acquired by Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) in a deal valued at $26 billion. A reader pointed out interesting activity on Hilton Hotels.

With the stock up, let's look and see how many "lucky" traders picked up calls on the stocks. A call option gives the buyer the right to buy the stock at a set price. If you think a stock is going to go up you can buy the right to buy that stock at a set price, in the hopes that it does in fact go up, as you expect.

The Hilton July 35 calls (HLTGG) had a volume of 3,660 Tuesday with a high price of $1.90. That is above the average volume of 314 calls per day since the options were issued and just above the previous record high daily volume of 3,616 on 5/31. Those calls are now worth about $10.50 a piece so a 450% gain over two days isn't bad. I have to say this looks suspicious; sort of like a man running from a bank with a bag of money.

Looking at the Hilton August 40 calls (HLTHH) it becomes a little more obvious. Tuesday there were 5,844 contracts for 0.85 cents or less. In the past three weeks -- since the options came out there were only a total of 70 contracts traded. The contracts bought Tuesday are now worth about $5.80 a piece. A 582% gain in two days, representing about $2.8 million in profits.

If that isn't enough money ...there is more. The July 40 calls (HLTGH) saw 3,312 contracts trade Tuesday for less than 0.40. Now at 5.50 it is a 1,275% return for another $1.6 million in profits.

While I do not know who made the trades, their intentions and what they knew when; I am betting they will soon be getting a call from the SEC. In all fairness, just because I see a man wearing a black ski mask running out of the bank carrying a bag of money and a gun doesn't mean he is a bank robber. These trades could be legit, but they trades have all the tell-tale signs of insider trading. By the way has anyone been following Paris recently? Has she been meeting with Martha Stewart?

Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Do you have any deadwood in your portfolio? Check out the 18 Warning Signs That Tell You To Dump A Stock.

Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

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Analyst downgrades 6-07-07: PG, IMCL and AV

Eric Buscemi — 2007-06-07T11:03:00+00:00

Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Procter and Gamble (PG), ImClone Systems (IMCL)

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG), ImClone Systems Incorporated (NASDAQ: IMCL) and Avaya Inc (NYSE: AV) were today's noteworthy downgrades:

Procter & Gamble was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Lehman, as the firm does not expect margin upside or sustained re-acceleration of revenue growth in FY08.
Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of ImClone to Underweight from Equal Weight, as the firm believes growth expectations and valuation are ahead of themselves after "underwhelming" CRYSTAL and second line colon cancer data.
Avaya was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Kaufman Brothers, which views other bidders as "unlikely."

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Needham downgraded Oplink Communications Inc (NASDAQ: OPLK) to Hold from Buy.
IDT Corporation (NYSE: IDT) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Stanford to reflect the company's accelerating cash burn, valuation and lack of a turnaround.
JP Morgan downgraded Volvo (NASDAQ: VOLV) to Underweight from Neutral on valuation.
PDL BioPharma Inc (NASDAQ: PDLI) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wachovia based on valuation and lack of catalysts.

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Trading play in ImClone

Steven Halpern — 2007-04-18T15:00:00+00:00

Filed under: Newsletters, ImClone Systems (IMCL)

Biotechnology industry expert John McCamant last recommended ImClone Systems (NASDAQ: IMCL) in the mid-1990s at $5 a share, and later sold at $42. Now, he has issued a trading alert, once again recommending the shares.

Two events, he says, are the basis of his new buy. The editor of The Medical Technology Stock Letter says, "The first event was Amgen's failed clinical trial of their competing product, Vectibix, when used in combination with Avastin and FOLFOX for the treatment of front-line metastatic colorectal cancer."

This, he notes, has "significantly strengthened" the competitive position of Imclone's Erbitux versus Vectibix. The second event, he adds, was the recent failure of Erbitux in the pancreatic cancer setting, which caused the stock to sell off.

McCamant explains, "This is a low impact event for Erbitux, and, in fact, they have other trials running in pancreatic that may still pan out."

The news, he states, while is disappointing, is "hardly a significant setback" for the company. To the contrary, he says, "We believe that with multiple potential positive catalysts on the nearer-term horizon, the pullback in the stock that this news led to has created a golden trading opportunity."

The advisor notes that results from two Phase 3 trials in metastatic colorectal cancer were just presented at the American Association of Cancer Research (AACR).

He observes, "A survival benefit of 32% was witnessed, with Erbitux patients living 6.1 months, versus 4.6 months for patients treated with best supportive care. These results are highly statistically significant."

He also notes that further out on the horizon, he expects additional data from the Phase 3 trial of Erbitux in the lung cancer setting. This is anticipated to be a second half event.

In the meantime, he sees recent price weakness as a chance to initiate trading position. He suggests buying on dips below $41 with a three-month trading target of $49.

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

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Before the bell 4-4-07: Autos, WMT, BMY, GE, PFE ...

Melly Alazraki — 2007-04-04T08:47:00+00:00

Filed under: Before the bell, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Microsoft (MSFT), eBay (EBAY), General Electric (GE), Pfizer (PFE), Wal-Mart (WMT), DaimlerChrysler (DAI), Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), Caterpillar (CAT), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Merck and Co (MRK), Analyst initiations, Freep't McMoRan Copper (FCX), ImClone Systems (IMCL)

General market news here.

ImClone Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: IMCL) and Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY) announced that first line Phase III study of Erbitux (Cetuximab) combined with platinum-based chemotherapy met the primary endpoint of increasing overall survival in patients with recurrent and/or metastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck. Merck KGaA, which licensed the right to market Erbitux outside the United States and Canada from ImClone, shares rose 1.4% higher in Frankfurt as the estimated market for Erbitux could peak at €800 million in Merck's territory.

Executives from Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) said in a conference yesterday that despite some weakness in the U.S., global market for metals is still tight and demand keeps growing. Heavy equipment makers say orders continue to grow and indicate optimism.

eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) shares gained 2.4% in yesterday's session, closing at $33.80, following a positive outlook from a Bear Stearns analyst who also raised his first-quarter revenue estimate.

A day after automakers reported sales where the Big 3 posted further declines while Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) and Honda Motor (NYSE: HMC) reported over 11% sales growth, Morgan Stanley will open its global automotive conference in New York today.
Prudential Securities initiated coverage of automakers: DaimlerChrysler AG (NYSE: DCX) at Neutral and a $58 target price, Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) with Underweight and a $6 target, General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) also with Underweight and a $26 target, Honda at Overweight with $46 target and Toyota with Overweight and $151 target price.

General Electric Co.'s (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal unveiled its international growth plans as it attempts to increase (double) broadcasting revenue outside the US. NBC plans to launch 20 TV channels across Europe, Asia and Latin America over the next two to three years.

After Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) signed a distribution pact only last month to sell its prescription drugs through a single wholesaler, Britain's government competition watchdog began investigating the supply of medicines across the country.

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) has filed five new lawsuits against U.S. companies and individuals claiming they sold student-only software not meant for retail distribution.\

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is about to have another PR nightmare as a former employee alleges he was part of a security unit, Wal-Mart's Threat Research and Analysis Group, that monitored workers, business partners and shareholders of the discount retailer, according to the Wall Street Journal. It's possible an employee was even sent to infiltrate an anti-Wal-Mart group.

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Friday Market Rap: DCX, GM, AMGN, HAL & MOT

Kevin Kersten — 2007-03-23T18:15:00+00:00

Filed under: After the bell, Apple Inc (AAPL), DaimlerChrysler (DAI), General Motors (GM), Motorola (MOT), Halliburton (HAL), Amgen Inc (AMGN), Options, ImClone Systems (IMCL)

The markets had mixed action ending slightly higher with semiconductors and auto manufacturers making gains while oil-well services were weaker. Oil prices continued rising with May futures up $0.53 to $62.22 a barrel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to pull in a 3% gain this week; its best week in four years.

The NYSE had volume of 2.5 billion shares with 1,846 shares advancing while 1,375 declined for a gain of 24.58 points to close at 9,338.4. On the NASDAQ, 1.6 billion shares traded, 1,593 advanced and 1,432 declined for a gain of 4.44 to 2,456.18.

Stocks moving today included: DaimlerChrysler (NYSE:DCX), which rose $4.76 (6%) to $82.36 on rumors of a bid. Those positive vibes rubbed off on General Motors (NYSE:GM) which gained $1.67 (6%) to $31.99. Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN) dropped $2.45 (-4%) to $58.02 after halting a drug trial on Vectibix. The bad news for AMGN helped the competitor ImClone Systems (NASDAQ:IMCL) jump $4.62 (14%) to $38.50. Jabil Circuit (NYSE:JBL) fell $2.67 (-11%) to $22.26 on lower guidance due to restructuring.

In options today there were 3.5 million puts and 3.7 million calls traded for a put-call ratio of 0.92. For a third day in a row Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT) saw volume on calls . The April 17.50 calls (MOTDW) traded 30,000 options trading while the May 19 calls (MOTET) moved 28,000 options trading. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) saw heavy volume on the April 95 calls (QAADS) with over 23,400 options trading. With the bad news on the halted drug trial for Vectibix, put buyers snapped up contracts. Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN) saw heavy volume on the April 70 puts (YAAPN) with over 39,900 options trading. The next strike up also saw action with the April 72.50 puts (YAAPV) moving 37,000 options trading. If you buy a put it will protect you if the stock falls. Halliburton Co. (NYSE:HAL) saw heavy volume on the April 40 puts (HALPH) and April 40 calls (HALDH) with over 26,000 options trading on each.

Kevin Kersten is an analyst with InvestorsObserver. DISCLOSURE NOTE: Mr. Kersten owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

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